One of the best predictors of future activity is past performance, but at the same time, we always preach that one small mistake shouldn’t define your life and send you down a path of crime. Yes, having a criminal record does increase your likelihood of being charged with another crime in the future compared to someone who doesn’t have a criminal conviction on their record, but what do the numbers say, and how long would a person have to go before their risk of future criminal activity falls in line with someone who has never been in trouble with the law? In today’s blog, we take a closer look at what the statistics say about the risk of reoffending.
Criminal Recidivism Study
To better understand recidivism rates, researchers at the University of Nebraska Omaha (UNO) took a closer look at data from more than 16.5 million people over the course of 40 years in order to learn about the predictive value of past criminal charges. Not surprisingly, a person’s risk of reoffending drops in a pretty consistent pattern until it ultimately converges with the general population’s ordinary risk level at roughly 9-10 years after the original offense. That means that an individual is more likely to get in trouble with the law for the first nine years after the original offense compared to someone off the street without a criminal conviction in the past.
Other interesting findings from the study include:
- The probability of drawing a new criminal charge drops from 28% one year out to about 2% by year 30, with a steeper early decline (51% drop in likelihood by year 7.).
- For the most part, the probabilities were similar across all races, sexes and type of crime.
- Most people do not reoffend. About 63% of those charged with a crime were never charged again.
Researchers concluded that more emphasis should be put on ensuring that someone doesn’t reoffend shortly after their original criminal matter is sorted, as the first year is the most likely time for someone to reoffend. Helping individuals get a solid foundation and restore some balance to their life can ensure these rates continue to decline as they move on with their life.
The last bullet point is critical – the majority of people do not reoffend after an original conviction. Most people find a way to get their life back on track and make better decisions, and oftentimes that begins by connecting with a professional who can help guide you through the system and ensure you have access to the right resources to keep you moving forward. We’ve helped countless clients put a mistake behind them and make positive changes in their life, and we can do the same for you.
For more information, or to set up a free case review session with one of our lawyers, pick up the phone and reach out to Avery and the team at Appelman Law Firm today at (952) 224-2277.
